Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Shaw wins 44.0% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 45.1% vs Duchene 54.2% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 72.5%
Defensive zone
Shaw 59.8%
Neutral zone
Shaw 66.9%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Shaw
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Shaw
Duchene
Last 5: Shaw 1-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Shaw
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Shaw
Duchene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Shaw
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (430)
56.8% (706)
-12.4%
Power Play
40.9% (22)
56.1% (57)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
42.3% (130)
-22.3%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Shaw is 44.0% vs left-shot opponents (339).
Shaw shoots right. Duchene is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (258).
Home / Away
Shaw
Duchene
Home
45.5% (224)
56.6% (488)
Away
42.5% (233)
52.3% (405)
By Period
Shaw
Duchene
P1
39.1%
52.0%
P2
41.7%
53.7%
P3
50.3%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
43.2%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
44.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2013 | 3 | 04:19 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 2 | 18:34 | Neutral | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 18, 2013 | 1 | 03:58 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 3 | 15:46 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2013 | 2 | 18:05 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |