Scouting Report
Andrew Shaw holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Shaw on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Shaw wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 53.3% vs Hertl 50.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Shaw 88.1%
Defensive zone
Hertl 67.4%
Neutral zone
Shaw 59.6%
Result
Andrew Shaw favored at 67.3%
67.3%
32.7%
Shaw
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Shaw
Hertl
Last 8: Shaw 6-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
5
0
Shaw
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Shaw
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (217)
51.5% (891)
+0.1%
Power Play
61.9% (105)
54.8% (135)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (4)
41.5% (130)
-41.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +41.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Shaw is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (232).
Shaw shoots right. Hertl is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Shaw
Hertl
Home
55.2% (163)
52.6% (544)
Away
53.4% (163)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Shaw
Hertl
P1
56.7%
49.4%
P2
50.9%
51.7%
P3
55.6%
51.4%
Final 5 min
52.4%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
54.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 09:09 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 15:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 14:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 07:48 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |