Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Shaw on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Shaw 48.2% vs Hertl 54.2% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Shaw leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 63.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 83.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 71.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Shaw
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Shaw
Hertl
Last 10: Shaw 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Shaw
7
1
Shaw
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Shaw
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Shaw
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (3,088)
53.8% (8,268)
-5.9%
Power Play
50.9% (407)
59.3% (1,975)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (57)
46.3% (806)
-4.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Shaw is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,540).
Shaw shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Shaw
Hertl
Home
50.3% (1,812)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
45.9% (1,740)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Shaw
Hertl
P1
48.5%
53.6%
P2
47.9%
54.1%
P3
48.2%
55.3%
OT
41.9%
46.5%
Final 5 min
46.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Shaw
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2019 | 2 | 12:39 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 3 | 18:15 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 3 | 08:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 3 | 04:41 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Dec 2, 2018 | 3 | 01:07 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 09:09 | Defensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 05:26 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 15:49 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 2 | 14:54 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 07:48 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Jan 2, 2018 | 1 | 06:19 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |
| Oct 17, 2017 | 2 | 15:41 | Offensive | Andrew Shaw |