Scouting Report
Andy McDonald holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McDonald on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McDonald wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Thornton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 57.2% vs Thornton 54.1% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDonald 75.8%
Defensive zone
McDonald 67.9%
Neutral zone
McDonald 74.2%
Result
Andy McDonald favored at 73.7%
73.7%
26.3%
McDonald
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
McDonald
Thornton
Last 9: McDonald 8-1 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDonald
5
0
McDonald
Thornton
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McDonald
Thornton
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDonald
2
0
McDonald
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (246)
52.8% (922)
+6.1%
Power Play
62.7% (75)
56.1% (196)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (23)
62.0% (100)
-14.2%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. McDonald is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (242).
McDonald shoots left. Thornton is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (913).
Home / Away
McDonald
Thornton
Home
63.5% (148)
54.9% (597)
Away
56.2% (201)
54.0% (643)
By Period
McDonald
Thornton
P1
64.2%
53.0%
P2
53.8%
51.2%
P3
59.8%
57.8%
OT
66.7%
72.7%
Final 5 min
48.3%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
59.3%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 14:34 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 09:37 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 3 | 00:20 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 16:00 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 05:13 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 19, 2011 | 1 | 00:23 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Nov 4, 2010 | 1 | 17:30 | Defensive | Andy McDonald |