Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.5% vs 56.0%). Look for Kesler on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). McDonald wins 58.1% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 54.8% vs Kesler 55.9% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
McDonald 74.5%
Defensive zone
Kesler 75.0%
Neutral zone
McDonald 50.9%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
McDonald
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
McDonald
Kesler
Last 10: McDonald 4-6 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDonald
3
1
McDonald
Kesler
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
5
McDonald
Kesler
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDonald
6
3
McDonald
Kesler
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (436)
56.4% (8,095)
-0.9%
Power Play
56.5% (177)
60.7% (1,437)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (44)
50.5% (1,908)
-2.8%
On power play, Kesler has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. McDonald is 58.1% vs right-shot opponents (227).
McDonald shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
McDonald
Kesler
Home
54.9% (297)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
56.0% (366)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
McDonald
Kesler
P1
58.5%
56.5%
P2
52.5%
55.9%
P3
54.1%
56.1%
OT
73.7%
46.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
55.5%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 17:48 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 10:50 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 06:28 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 17:35 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 16, 2013 | 2 | 02:13 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 17, 2013 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 17, 2013 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 3 | 06:18 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 00:36 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 2 | 05:11 | Offensive | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 24, 2011 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 14, 2011 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |