Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Czarnik wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Czarnik 46.0% vs Stastny 55.1% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Czarnik 51.6%
Defensive zone
Czarnik 50.9%
Neutral zone
Czarnik 50.8%
Result
Austin Czarnik favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Czarnik
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Czarnik
Stastny
Last 10: Czarnik 5-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Czarnik
3
0
Czarnik
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Czarnik
1
0
Czarnik
Stastny
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
6
Czarnik
Stastny
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Czarnik
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (605)
54.6% (10,616)
-8.8%
Power Play
42.2% (45)
59.1% (1,994)
-16.9%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
52.9% (1,119)
-15.4%
On power play, Stastny has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Czarnik is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (478).
Czarnik shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Home / Away
Czarnik
Stastny
Home
45.1% (335)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
45.6% (331)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Czarnik
Stastny
P1
47.8%
56.3%
P2
47.4%
55.4%
P3
40.6%
53.5%
OT
0.0%
62.9%
Final 5 min
43.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Czarnik
46.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:53 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 11:08 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 05:05 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 13:05 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 02:46 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 04:40 | Neutral | Austin Czarnik |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 04:18 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 19:38 | Offensive | Austin Czarnik |
| Nov 22, 2016 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |