Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Fantilli wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Matthews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fantilli 44.9% vs Matthews 53.2% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Fantilli leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 58.4%
Defensive zone
Matthews 82.7%
Neutral zone
Matthews 65.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 69.6%
30.4%
69.6%
Fantilli
Matthews
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Fantilli
Matthews
Last 10: Fantilli 5-5 Matthews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
2
Fantilli
Matthews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Fantilli
3
2
Fantilli
Matthews
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Fantilli
4
3
Fantilli
Matthews
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fantilli
Matthews
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (358)
53.4% (1,169)
-10.1%
Power Play
50.0% (32)
65.8% (76)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
41.9% (74)
-41.9%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +41.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Matthews shoots left. Fantilli is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Fantilli shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Home / Away
Fantilli
Matthews
Home
46.8% (218)
56.5% (703)
Away
39.7% (174)
50.0% (616)
By Period
Fantilli
Matthews
P1
40.3%
52.1%
P2
38.1%
54.0%
P3
54.1%
54.0%
OT
30.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
38.9%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fantilli
50.0%▲
47.0%
43.6%
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 17:23 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 06:15 | Offensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 10:35 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 14, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 18:09 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:45 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:20 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:48 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 04:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Adam Fantilli |