Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Cave on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Cave shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Cave 49.3% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cave 62.4%
Defensive zone
Cave 87.2%
Neutral zone
Cave 75.5%
Result
Colby Cave favored at 79.9%
20.1%
79.9%
Matthews
Cave
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Matthews
Cave
Last 5: Matthews 1-4 Cave
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Cave
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cave
0
3
Matthews
Cave
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cave
0
1
Matthews
Cave
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Cave
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
50.1% (445)
+3.9%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
41.7% (12)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
41.9% (43)
+7.9%
On power play, Matthews has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cave shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Cave is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (346).
Home / Away
Matthews
Cave
Home
56.3% (5,065)
46.8% (233)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
51.3% (267)
By Period
Matthews
Cave
P1
55.5%
46.3%
P2
53.3%
48.3%
P3
52.8%
53.7%
OT
56.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Cave
42.0%▼
50.5%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2019 | 1 | 11:16 | Defensive | Colby Cave |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 14:32 | Defensive | Colby Cave |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 08:54 | Neutral | Colby Cave |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 1 | 16:47 | Defensive | Colby Cave |