Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on neutral-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — McKegg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs McKegg 49.2% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 87.0%
Defensive zone
Matthews 61.2%
Neutral zone
Matthews 77.6%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Matthews
McKegg
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Matthews
McKegg
Last 8: Matthews 5-3 McKegg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
McKegg
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
3
Matthews
McKegg
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
McKegg
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
49.1% (1,143)
+4.9%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
50.0% (24)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
48.8% (86)
+1.0%
On power play, Matthews has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McKegg shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. McKegg is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
Matthews
McKegg
Home
56.3% (5,065)
50.4% (554)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
48.1% (699)
By Period
Matthews
McKegg
P1
55.5%
48.7%
P2
53.3%
49.9%
P3
52.8%
48.6%
Final 5 min
54.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2020 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 03:26 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 08:31 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 16, 2017 | 1 | 02:49 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 18:53 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 1 | 15:36 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 17, 2016 | 1 | 09:06 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |