Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Beagle shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.7% vs Beagle 54.7% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 83.2%
Defensive zone
Beagle 69.7%
Neutral zone
Beagle 51.3%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Matthews
Beagle
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Matthews
Beagle
Last 9: Matthews 5-4 Beagle
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
4
0
Matthews
Beagle
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
0
4
Matthews
Beagle
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Beagle
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Beagle
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (795)
59.0% (212)
-6.8%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
50.0% (2)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (32)
50.0% (94)
-6.2%
On even strength, Beagle has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beagle shoots right. Matthews is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Matthews shoots left. Beagle is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (214).
Home / Away
Matthews
Beagle
Home
53.5% (454)
57.9% (171)
Away
50.1% (413)
54.0% (137)
By Period
Matthews
Beagle
P1
54.8%
53.3%
P2
52.2%
61.5%
P3
48.1%
54.1%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
41.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
51.9%
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2021 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 09:52 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 09:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 03:46 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 3 | 03:39 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 11:09 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 03:19 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 02:09 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 07:27 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |