Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.7% vs Thompson 50.3% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 71.1%
Defensive zone
Thompson 70.8%
Neutral zone
Thompson 54.1%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Matthews
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Matthews
Thompson
Last 5: Matthews 2-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Thompson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Matthews
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Matthews
1
0
Matthews
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (795)
49.6% (230)
+2.6%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
50.0% (2)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (32)
53.8% (52)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Thompson has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Matthews is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Matthews shoots left. Thompson is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
Matthews
Thompson
Home
53.5% (454)
52.2% (134)
Away
50.1% (413)
48.7% (150)
By Period
Matthews
Thompson
P1
54.8%
54.5%
P2
52.2%
48.0%
P3
48.1%
48.2%
Final 5 min
54.1%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
51.9%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 24, 2021 | 2 | 13:39 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Mar 31, 2021 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 11, 2021 | 1 | 06:39 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 3 | 03:05 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |