Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Matthews on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Matthews wins 57.1% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Smith 48.2% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 86.8%
Defensive zone
Matthews 73.1%
Neutral zone
Matthews 76.4%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Matthews
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Matthews
Smith
Last 6: Matthews 4-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
1
Matthews
Smith
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
2
0
Matthews
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
0
1
Matthews
Smith
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (613)
49.7% (485)
+4.8%
Power Play
52.9% (68)
46.8% (47)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
71.4% (7)
38.6% (88)
+32.8%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +32.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Matthews is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (462).
Matthews shoots left. Smith is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Matthews
Smith
Home
59.8% (351)
48.7% (310)
Away
49.0% (337)
47.1% (310)
By Period
Matthews
Smith
P1
58.0%
45.8%
P2
49.6%
47.4%
P3
55.4%
50.5%
OT
83.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.4%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
54.5%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2018 | 3 | 02:52 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 1 | 17:16 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 10, 2018 | 1 | 10:19 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 1 | 13:04 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 10, 2018 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |