Scouting Report
Barrett Hayton holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Bourque on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayton wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 53.8% vs Bourque 47.1% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayton 84.4%
Defensive zone
Hayton 55.3%
Neutral zone
Hayton 74.5%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Hayton
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Hayton
Bourque
Last 5: Hayton 4-1 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayton
2
0
Hayton
Bourque
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bourque
1
2
Hayton
Bourque
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayton
1
0
Hayton
Bourque
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (817)
46.7% (321)
+5.9%
Power Play
63.3% (139)
33.3% (6)
+30.0%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (64)
42.9% (21)
+10.2%
On power play, Hayton has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Hayton is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (336).
Hayton shoots left. Bourque is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Home / Away
Hayton
Bourque
Home
53.9% (516)
51.0% (157)
Away
54.4% (504)
42.4% (191)
By Period
Hayton
Bourque
P1
55.1%
44.2%
P2
55.0%
44.7%
P3
51.7%
49.6%
OT
69.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
59.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
54.1%
Bourque
50.0%▲
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 19:04 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |