Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Holmstrom on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Holmstrom wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Holmstrom 50.0% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 69.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 70.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 72.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.9%
30.1%
69.9%
Holmstrom
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Holmstrom
O'Reilly
Last 6: Holmstrom 4-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Holmstrom
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Holmstrom
4
1
Holmstrom
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Holmstrom
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (29)
52.5% (1,177)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
52.8% (108)
+47.2%
On penalty kill, Holmstrom has a +47.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Holmstrom is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (25).
Holmstrom shoots right. O'Reilly is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Holmstrom
O'Reilly
Home
42.9% (14)
54.9% (669)
Away
56.3% (16)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Holmstrom
O'Reilly
P1
41.7%
52.4%
P2
46.2%
56.1%
P3
80.0%
49.8%
Final 5 min
100.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Holmstrom
43.5%▬
43.5%
50.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2011 | 2 | 13:23 | Defensive | Ben Holmstrom |
| Dec 19, 2011 | 2 | 10:19 | Defensive | Ben Holmstrom |
| Dec 19, 2011 | 1 | 11:16 | Defensive | Ben Holmstrom |
| Dec 19, 2011 | 1 | 09:07 | Defensive | Ben Holmstrom |
| Dec 19, 2011 | 1 | 08:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2011 | 1 | 05:44 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |