Scouting Report
Ben Smith holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 51.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 63.0%
Defensive zone
Dowd 53.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.4%
Result
Ben Smith favored at 52.4%
52.4%
47.6%
Smith
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Smith
Dowd
Last 8: Smith 3-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Smith
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Smith
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
2
0
Smith
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (1,269)
52.4% (6,009)
+1.3%
Power Play
55.6% (27)
56.1% (164)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (369)
44.1% (1,635)
+1.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Smith is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (501).
Smith shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Smith
Dowd
Home
53.8% (860)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
49.8% (805)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Smith
Dowd
P1
52.1%
51.7%
P2
50.2%
50.4%
P3
53.3%
50.3%
OT
62.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
53.0%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
38.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 03:39 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 03:23 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 1 | 18:19 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 1 | 13:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 1 | 13:31 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 1 | 10:46 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 1 | 07:06 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |