Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Smith wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 51.9% vs Gaustad 55.9% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Smith 60.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 77.4%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 59.0%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Smith
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Smith
Gaustad
Last 5: Smith 3-2 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
3
0
Smith
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Smith
Gaustad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Smith
Gaustad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
54.1% (475)
57.7% (821)
-3.6%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
56.3% (16)
-42.0%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (112)
52.3% (260)
-5.9%
On power play, Gaustad has a +42.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Smith is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (432).
Smith shoots right. Gaustad is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Smith
Gaustad
Home
54.4% (274)
58.9% (577)
Away
50.3% (320)
53.7% (520)
By Period
Smith
Gaustad
P1
50.0%
53.1%
P2
53.4%
57.9%
P3
53.2%
57.8%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
38.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2015 | 2 | 18:42 | Offensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Ben Smith |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Ben Smith |