Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Smith on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 51.8% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Smith 56.3%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 66.3%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 59.7%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Smith
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Smith
Gaustad
Last 10: Smith 5-5 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smith
4
0
Smith
Gaustad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
3
Smith
Gaustad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
2
Smith
Gaustad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (1,269)
58.2% (4,334)
-4.5%
Power Play
55.6% (27)
65.4% (188)
-9.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (369)
54.8% (1,290)
-9.3%
On power play, Gaustad has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Smith is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,164).
Smith shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Home / Away
Smith
Gaustad
Home
53.8% (860)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
49.8% (805)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Smith
Gaustad
P1
52.1%
58.2%
P2
50.2%
56.4%
P3
53.3%
58.3%
OT
62.5%
66.0%
Final 5 min
53.0%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
38.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2015 | 2 | 15:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 28, 2015 | 1 | 17:13 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 2 | 18:42 | Offensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 12, 2015 | 1 | 09:58 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 3 | 10:57 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 29, 2014 | 1 | 03:12 | Offensive | Ben Smith |
| Oct 18, 2014 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Ben Smith |
| Apr 12, 2014 | 2 | 08:59 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Apr 12, 2014 | 1 | 12:43 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 14, 2014 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Ben Smith |