Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Smith 51.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Smith leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 92.8%
Defensive zone
Smith 55.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 70.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 74.9%
25.1%
74.9%
Smith
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
11
(25 meetings)
14
11
Smith
O'Reilly
Last 10: Smith 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
10
Smith
O'Reilly
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
5
1
Smith
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
7
0
Smith
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Smith
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.7% (1,269)
56.2% (15,260)
-2.5%
Power Play
55.6% (27)
58.8% (3,445)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (369)
51.4% (2,811)
-5.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Smith is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,164).
Smith shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Smith
O'Reilly
Home
53.8% (860)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
49.8% (805)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Smith
O'Reilly
P1
52.1%
55.6%
P2
50.2%
57.0%
P3
53.3%
55.1%
OT
62.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
53.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Smith
38.0%▼
49.0%
51.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2017 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 2 | 02:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 09:30 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 1 | 18:02 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Feb 11, 2017 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 3 | 02:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2 | 14:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2 | 11:39 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 3, 2016 | 2 | 09:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 06:56 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 05:00 | Offensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 04:57 | Offensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 03:44 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 3 | 03:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 1 | 15:31 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 1 | 15:12 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Mar 19, 2016 | 1 | 13:41 | Defensive | Ben Smith |
| Feb 20, 2015 | 3 | 14:13 | Neutral | Ben Smith |
| Feb 20, 2015 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Ben Smith |