Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.2% vs 52.3%). Look for Backes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Jones wins 55.6% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jones 51.7% vs Backes 52.1% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jones 57.3%
Defensive zone
Jones 52.7%
Neutral zone
Jones 62.9%
Result
Blair Jones favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Jones
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Jones
Backes
Last 5: Jones 1-4 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
0
1
Jones
Backes
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
0
3
Jones
Backes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jones
1
0
Jones
Backes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jones
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (97)
54.4% (726)
+1.3%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
47.8% (92)
+52.2%
Penalty Kill
27.3% (11)
40.4% (94)
-13.1%
On power play, Jones has a +52.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Jones is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (27).
Jones shoots right. Backes is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (222).
Home / Away
Jones
Backes
Home
52.5% (59)
50.8% (447)
Away
54.0% (50)
53.8% (465)
By Period
Jones
Backes
P1
62.9%
51.8%
P2
41.0%
53.2%
P3
57.1%
52.8%
Final 5 min
50.0%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jones
42.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2013 | 3 | 02:10 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Apr 25, 2013 | 1 | 13:23 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Feb 15, 2013 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 15, 2013 | 2 | 05:49 | Defensive | David Backes |