Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.8% vs 47.4%). Look for Jones on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Jones wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Roy shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jones 47.3% vs Roy 47.4% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Jones leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 73.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 56.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 53.9%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 59.5%
40.5%
59.5%
Jones
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Jones
Roy
Last 10: Jones 6-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
3
Jones
Roy
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jones
4
2
Jones
Roy
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Jones
4
0
Jones
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jones
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (494)
46.4% (3,031)
+2.2%
Power Play
50.0% (26)
53.6% (560)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
32.3% (62)
46.8% (267)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots left. Jones is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (415).
Jones shoots right. Roy is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Home / Away
Jones
Roy
Home
48.9% (272)
49.5% (1,982)
Away
45.0% (311)
45.1% (1,897)
By Period
Jones
Roy
P1
47.1%
47.6%
P2
49.7%
46.2%
P3
44.8%
48.5%
OT
25.0%
43.1%
Final 5 min
43.7%
47.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jones
42.0%▼
50.5%
46.8%
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 17:27 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 07:48 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 08:04 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 3 | 01:14 | Defensive | Blair Jones |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 2 | 14:57 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 1 | 16:17 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Apr 10, 2013 | 1 | 11:27 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Feb 13, 2013 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Blair Jones |
| Feb 13, 2013 | 2 | 09:19 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Feb 13, 2013 | 2 | 03:47 | Neutral | Blair Jones |
| Oct 25, 2011 | 1 | 17:08 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Oct 25, 2011 | 1 | 11:08 | Defensive | Blair Jones |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 2 | 13:41 | Defensive | Blair Jones |