Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Lizotte on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lizotte 50.4% vs Thornton 54.3% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 91.1%
Defensive zone
Thornton 64.7%
Neutral zone
Thornton 75.5%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 75.9%
24.1%
75.9%
Lizotte
Thornton
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Lizotte
Thornton
Last 9: Lizotte 7-2 Thornton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
1
Lizotte
Thornton
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lizotte
3
1
Lizotte
Thornton
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lizotte
2
0
Lizotte
Thornton
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lizotte
Thornton
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (3,068)
53.5% (6,640)
-1.9%
Power Play
48.1% (81)
57.2% (1,387)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (437)
56.7% (427)
-14.4%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thornton shoots left. Lizotte is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,373).
Lizotte shoots left. Thornton is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,220).
Home / Away
Lizotte
Thornton
Home
49.5% (1,840)
55.8% (4,271)
Away
51.4% (1,746)
52.8% (4,219)
By Period
Lizotte
Thornton
P1
48.0%
55.0%
P2
52.3%
53.3%
P3
50.5%
54.4%
OT
75.0%
56.4%
Final 5 min
50.2%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lizotte
46.0%▬
47.0%
50.4%
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 12:37 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 16:17 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 16:02 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 3 | 09:07 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 13:02 | Neutral | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 2 | 12:58 | Offensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 29, 2019 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Blake Lizotte |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 12:18 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |