Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wheeler wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wheeler 46.8% vs Pavelski 54.4% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wheeler 71.9%
Defensive zone
Wheeler 69.8%
Neutral zone
Wheeler 70.3%
Result
Blake Wheeler favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Wheeler
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Wheeler
Pavelski
Last 5: Wheeler 1-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Wheeler
Pavelski
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
3
Wheeler
Pavelski
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wheeler
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (294)
53.2% (690)
-4.9%
Power Play
34.0% (50)
61.5% (174)
-27.5%
Penalty Kill
38.9% (18)
55.3% (47)
-16.4%
On power play, Pavelski has a +27.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Wheeler is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Wheeler shoots right. Pavelski is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Wheeler
Pavelski
Home
50.8% (183)
56.1% (421)
Away
40.8% (179)
53.9% (490)
By Period
Wheeler
Pavelski
P1
44.1%
57.1%
P2
48.7%
55.8%
P3
45.2%
52.5%
OT
40.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
39.8%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wheeler
60.0%▲
53.0%
45.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2018 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 2 | 07:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 1 | 08:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 19:02 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |