Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Wheeler wins 40.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wheeler 46.1% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Wheeler 67.9%
Defensive zone
Wheeler 57.7%
Neutral zone
Wheeler 60.9%
Result
Blake Wheeler favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Wheeler
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
11
(20 meetings)
9
11
Wheeler
Pavelski
Last 10: Wheeler 6-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wheeler
5
2
Wheeler
Pavelski
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Wheeler
Pavelski
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
6
Wheeler
Pavelski
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wheeler
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (1,369)
53.6% (8,791)
-6.9%
Power Play
46.9% (207)
58.2% (2,122)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (129)
50.9% (1,138)
-15.2%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Wheeler is 40.3% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Wheeler shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Wheeler
Pavelski
Home
47.5% (883)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
44.2% (822)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Wheeler
Pavelski
P1
45.0%
53.5%
P2
48.2%
55.2%
P3
44.5%
53.9%
OT
37.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
42.4%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wheeler
60.0%▲
53.0%
45.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2019 | 3 | 09:15 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 3 | 04:02 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 3 | 02:58 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 18:27 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 11:34 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 08:18 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 08:01 | Defensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 1 | 01:13 | Defensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Dec 3, 2019 | 1 | 01:09 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 05:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 1 | 09:57 | Defensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 1 | 00:57 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 10, 2019 | 2 | 18:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 3 | 11:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 2 | 07:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 1 | 08:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 19:02 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |