Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Wheeler on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Wheeler wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wheeler 49.9% vs Tavares 54.9% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 73.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 58.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 75.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 73.2%
26.8%
73.2%
Wheeler
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Wheeler
Tavares
Last 8: Wheeler 6-2 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wheeler
1
0
Wheeler
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wheeler
1
0
Wheeler
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wheeler
4
2
Wheeler
Tavares
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wheeler
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (536)
54.8% (861)
-4.2%
Power Play
47.1% (68)
57.5% (226)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (48)
51.7% (29)
-5.9%
On power play, Tavares has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Wheeler is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (452).
Wheeler shoots right. Tavares is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (431).
Home / Away
Wheeler
Tavares
Home
52.8% (352)
58.1% (559)
Away
46.3% (300)
52.4% (557)
By Period
Wheeler
Tavares
P1
46.8%
57.6%
P2
57.7%
55.5%
P3
44.8%
52.0%
OT
50.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
43.0%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wheeler
60.0%▲
53.0%
49.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2020 | 3 | 19:41 | Defensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 19:36 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 03:44 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 03:24 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |