Scouting Report
Blake Wheeler holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Wheeler on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Wheeler wins 42.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wheeler 49.9% vs Carpenter 44.1% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wheeler 78.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 72.9%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 53.8%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Wheeler
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Wheeler
Carpenter
Last 8: Wheeler 4-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
2
Wheeler
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Wheeler
2
1
Wheeler
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Wheeler
2
1
Wheeler
Carpenter
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wheeler
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (536)
46.2% (474)
+4.4%
Power Play
47.1% (68)
28.6% (7)
+18.5%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (48)
32.6% (129)
+13.2%
On power play, Wheeler has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Wheeler is 42.0% vs right-shot opponents (200).
Wheeler shoots right. Carpenter is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Wheeler
Carpenter
Home
52.8% (352)
46.5% (303)
Away
46.3% (300)
39.7% (307)
By Period
Wheeler
Carpenter
P1
46.8%
44.2%
P2
57.7%
40.4%
P3
44.8%
44.2%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
43.0%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wheeler
60.0%▲
53.0%
49.8%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 12:32 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 2 | 08:48 | Defensive | Blake Wheeler |
| Feb 16, 2020 | 1 | 08:17 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 9, 2020 | 2 | 17:08 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 9, 2020 | 1 | 05:37 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 19, 2020 | 1 | 14:11 | Neutral | Blake Wheeler |
| Jan 19, 2020 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Blake Wheeler |