Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 57.1% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.4% vs Sourdif 45.9% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 63.9%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 82.8%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 71.9%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 75.3%
24.7%
75.3%
Horvat
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Horvat
Sourdif
Last 9: Horvat 3-6 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
0
Horvat
Sourdif
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
5
Horvat
Sourdif
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
1
Horvat
Sourdif
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (682)
44.6% (556)
+10.7%
Power Play
62.2% (230)
50.0% (24)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (101)
61.5% (13)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Horvat is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (413).
Horvat shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Home / Away
Horvat
Sourdif
Home
58.2% (469)
43.6% (321)
Away
54.0% (544)
47.1% (272)
By Period
Horvat
Sourdif
P1
59.6%
43.1%
P2
53.1%
43.9%
P3
55.5%
48.6%
OT
55.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
59.6%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
56.0%
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 07:10 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 04:24 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 09:36 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |