Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sourdif on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Horvat wins 56.5% vs right-shot opponents — Sourdif shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 54.4% vs Sourdif 45.9% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sourdif 68.3%
Defensive zone
Sourdif 72.9%
Neutral zone
Sourdif 68.5%
Result
Justin Sourdif favored at 70.9%
29.1%
70.9%
Horvat
Sourdif
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Horvat
Sourdif
Last 9: Horvat 3-6 Sourdif
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horvat
3
0
Horvat
Sourdif
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
5
Horvat
Sourdif
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sourdif
0
1
Horvat
Sourdif
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
Sourdif
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (12,606)
44.6% (556)
+9.3%
Power Play
61.0% (2,699)
50.0% (24)
+11.0%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,494)
61.5% (13)
-14.4%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sourdif shoots right. Horvat is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,086).
Horvat shoots left. Sourdif is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (418).
Home / Away
Horvat
Sourdif
Home
56.0% (8,355)
43.6% (321)
Away
52.9% (8,445)
47.1% (272)
By Period
Horvat
Sourdif
P1
54.1%
43.1%
P2
54.4%
43.9%
P3
55.0%
48.6%
OT
49.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
44.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
50.0%▼
55.0%
54.4%
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 07:10 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 04:24 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Bo Horvat |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 1 | 09:36 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |