Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nieves wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nieves 43.8% vs Stepan 46.6% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 62.0%
Defensive zone
Nieves 55.3%
Neutral zone
Nieves 53.3%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Nieves
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Nieves
Stepan
Last 9: Nieves 4-5 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
0
4
Nieves
Stepan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nieves
3
0
Nieves
Stepan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nieves
Stepan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nieves
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (457)
46.5% (10,204)
-3.4%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
48.8% (1,593)
+26.2%
Penalty Kill
14.3% (14)
44.2% (1,368)
-29.9%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +29.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Nieves is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (135).
Nieves shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Nieves
Stepan
Home
48.3% (230)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
37.1% (245)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Nieves
Stepan
P1
41.1%
47.5%
P2
44.6%
45.6%
P3
41.4%
46.8%
Final 5 min
41.3%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nieves
50.0%▲
40.5%
42.5%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 14:33 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Boo Nieves |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 6, 2019 | 1 | 09:19 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 2 | 13:35 | Neutral | Boo Nieves |
| Jan 6, 2018 | 1 | 09:45 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 15:00 | Defensive | Boo Nieves |
| Oct 26, 2017 | 1 | 05:17 | Defensive | Boo Nieves |