Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.2%). Look for Jenner on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 32 meetings). Jenner wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jenner 53.9% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Jenner leads 43-33 in 76 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 65.8%
Defensive zone
Jenner 50.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 57.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Jenner
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
43
-
33
(76 meetings)
43
33
Jenner
Pavelski
Last 10: Jenner 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
10
14
Jenner
Pavelski
24 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jenner
25
7
Jenner
Pavelski
32 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
12
Jenner
Pavelski
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jenner
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (6,190)
53.6% (8,791)
+0.9%
Power Play
55.8% (1,147)
58.2% (2,122)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (998)
50.9% (1,138)
-2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Jenner is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,155).
Jenner shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Jenner
Pavelski
Home
54.5% (4,051)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
53.4% (4,284)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Jenner
Pavelski
P1
53.7%
53.5%
P2
53.5%
55.2%
P3
54.4%
53.9%
OT
54.5%
52.3%
Final 5 min
52.2%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jenner
52.0%▲
49.0%
53.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 13:16 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 11:50 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 04:48 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:27 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Boone Jenner |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 06:29 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 03:41 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:46 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 1 | 04:37 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 15:38 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 04:00 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 09:12 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 2 | 02:47 | Offensive | Boone Jenner |
| Dec 2, 2021 | 1 | 18:33 | Defensive | Boone Jenner |