Scouting Report
Brad Mills holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Mills on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mills wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mills 56.2% vs Staal 51.0% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mills 51.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 57.5%
Neutral zone
Mills 50.5%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Mills
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Mills
Staal
Last 6: Mills 3-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Mills
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mills
2
1
Mills
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mills
1
0
Mills
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mills
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (98)
52.3% (790)
+7.9%
Power Play
100.0% (5)
54.4% (114)
+45.6%
Penalty Kill
54.5% (22)
45.0% (218)
+9.5%
On power play, Mills has a +45.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Mills is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (84).
Mills shoots right. Staal is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (419).
Home / Away
Mills
Staal
Home
65.3% (72)
54.9% (628)
Away
55.6% (54)
46.4% (530)
By Period
Mills
Staal
P1
57.5%
50.3%
P2
60.9%
52.4%
P3
65.0%
50.4%
Final 5 min
61.5%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mills
64.0%▲
58.6%
61.1%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2011 | 3 | 12:29 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 3 | 08:03 | Neutral | Brad Mills |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Brad Mills |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 2 | 01:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 1 | 07:52 | Defensive | Brad Mills |