Scouting Report
Brad Mills holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Mills on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mills wins 58.1% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mills 55.3% vs Staal 55.3% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mills 54.5%
Defensive zone
Mills 52.6%
Neutral zone
Mills 51.5%
Result
Brad Mills favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Mills
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Mills
Staal
Last 6: Mills 3-3 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
0
2
Mills
Staal
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Mills
2
1
Mills
Staal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Mills
1
0
Mills
Staal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mills
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (126)
55.9% (14,620)
+1.2%
Power Play
100.0% (5)
62.7% (1,745)
+37.3%
Penalty Kill
56.0% (25)
48.0% (2,896)
+8.0%
On power play, Mills has a +37.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Mills is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (105).
Mills shoots right. Staal is 58.8% vs right-shot opponents (6,553).
Home / Away
Mills
Staal
Home
63.9% (83)
56.4% (9,663)
Away
52.7% (74)
54.3% (9,663)
By Period
Mills
Staal
P1
54.3%
55.2%
P2
58.1%
55.9%
P3
63.3%
54.9%
Final 5 min
61.8%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mills
64.0%▲
58.6%
58.6%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2011 | 3 | 12:29 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 3 | 08:03 | Neutral | Brad Mills |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 3 | 00:37 | Defensive | Brad Mills |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 2 | 01:48 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Oct 22, 2011 | 1 | 07:52 | Defensive | Brad Mills |