Scouting Report
Brad Richards holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Richards wins 54.0% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 51.7% vs Backes 48.7% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Backes 50.7%
Defensive zone
Backes 64.5%
Neutral zone
Backes 53.8%
Result
David Backes favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Richards
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
Richards
Backes
Last 10: Richards 3-7 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
1
4
Richards
Backes
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
0
1
Richards
Backes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
3
5
Richards
Backes
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (1,084)
49.1% (967)
+2.6%
Power Play
52.2% (180)
48.1% (189)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (37)
45.2% (168)
+6.2%
On penalty kill, Richards has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Richards is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (450).
Richards shoots left. Backes is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Richards
Backes
Home
52.2% (668)
48.1% (690)
Away
51.4% (648)
49.2% (663)
By Period
Richards
Backes
P1
50.1%
49.0%
P2
52.4%
50.2%
P3
52.9%
47.5%
OT
52.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.3%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
51.8%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2011 | 3 | 15:44 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 3 | 06:44 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 3 | 05:26 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 3 | 02:01 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 12:38 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 06:05 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 05:55 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 2 | 05:41 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 09:44 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 06:06 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brad Richards |