Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.3% vs 50.7%). Look for Richards on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings). Richards wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 50.3% vs Backes 50.7% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Backes leads 28-27 in 55 meetings
Offensive zone
Richards 75.3%
Defensive zone
Backes 66.7%
Neutral zone
Backes 51.6%
Result
Brad Richards favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Richards
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
28
(55 meetings)
27
28
Richards
Backes
Last 10: Richards 5-5 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richards
12
5
Richards
Backes
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backes
2
8
Richards
Backes
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backes
13
15
Richards
Backes
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (4,561)
51.1% (5,772)
-0.7%
Power Play
51.0% (512)
50.8% (1,082)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (92)
47.4% (930)
-6.1%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Richards is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,806).
Richards shoots left. Backes is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,704).
Home / Away
Richards
Backes
Home
51.1% (2,671)
50.6% (3,936)
Away
49.5% (2,512)
50.7% (3,895)
By Period
Richards
Backes
P1
49.6%
50.1%
P2
50.3%
51.5%
P3
51.0%
50.8%
OT
50.6%
42.9%
Final 5 min
49.4%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
50.3%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2016 | 3 | 04:36 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Jan 20, 2016 | 2 | 10:11 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Apr 5, 2015 | 3 | 16:43 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Apr 5, 2015 | 3 | 14:34 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Apr 5, 2015 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Apr 5, 2015 | 3 | 00:07 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 2 | 14:53 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 2 | 06:52 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Feb 8, 2015 | 1 | 15:50 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 3, 2014 | 3 | 14:16 | Defensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 3, 2014 | 3 | 11:01 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 3, 2014 | 3 | 02:16 | Defensive | David Backes |
| Dec 3, 2014 | 2 | 11:41 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Dec 3, 2014 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 3 | 19:52 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 3 | 16:22 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 2 | 00:23 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 1 | 05:03 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Dec 15, 2011 | 3 | 15:44 | Neutral | David Backes |