Scouting Report
David Backes holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Richards on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Richards wins 55.4% vs right-shot opponents — Backes shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 49.8% vs Backes 51.6% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Richards 50.8%
Defensive zone
Backes 82.8%
Neutral zone
Backes 72.0%
Result
David Backes favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Richards
Backes
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Richards
Backes
Last 5: Richards 4-1 Backes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richards
3
0
Richards
Backes
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Richards
Backes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Backes
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (950)
51.3% (861)
-1.5%
Power Play
53.6% (69)
50.0% (176)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (10)
55.5% (164)
-35.5%
On penalty kill, Backes has a +35.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backes shoots right. Richards is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Richards shoots left. Backes is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Richards
Backes
Home
51.1% (532)
53.3% (599)
Away
48.3% (497)
50.2% (602)
By Period
Richards
Backes
P1
48.6%
53.5%
P2
51.0%
50.3%
P3
49.8%
51.5%
OT
43.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
49.8%
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2014 | 3 | 19:52 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 3 | 16:22 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 2 | 00:23 | Neutral | David Backes |
| Jan 23, 2014 | 1 | 05:03 | Offensive | Brad Richards |