Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Richards on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Richards wins 55.4% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 49.8% vs Kesler 52.5% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Richards 55.6%
Defensive zone
Kesler 78.9%
Neutral zone
Kesler 76.4%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 68.7%
31.3%
68.7%
Richards
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Richards
Kesler
Last 7: Richards 5-2 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Richards
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Richards
3
1
Richards
Kesler
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richards
1
0
Richards
Kesler
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
49.8% (950)
53.8% (1,005)
-4.0%
Power Play
53.6% (69)
56.6% (205)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (10)
42.3% (196)
-22.3%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +22.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Richards is 55.4% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Richards shoots left. Kesler is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (982).
Home / Away
Richards
Kesler
Home
51.1% (532)
54.1% (719)
Away
48.3% (497)
51.1% (687)
By Period
Richards
Kesler
P1
48.6%
53.1%
P2
51.0%
54.5%
P3
49.8%
50.3%
OT
43.8%
47.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
49.8%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2014 | 3 | 12:58 | Defensive | Brad Richards |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 3 | 03:13 | Defensive | Brad Richards |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 2 | 14:19 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 11:28 | Defensive | Brad Richards |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 08:17 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brad Richards |