Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Richards on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Richards wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richards 50.3% vs Kesler 55.9% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Kesler leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Richards 83.1%
Defensive zone
Kesler 56.5%
Neutral zone
Richards 65.2%
Result
Brad Richards favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Richards
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
13
(24 meetings)
11
13
Richards
Kesler
Last 10: Richards 5-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richards
6
2
Richards
Kesler
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
3
7
Richards
Kesler
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
2
4
Richards
Kesler
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richards
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (4,561)
56.4% (8,095)
-6.0%
Power Play
51.0% (512)
60.7% (1,437)
-9.7%
Penalty Kill
41.3% (92)
50.5% (1,908)
-9.2%
On power play, Kesler has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Richards is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,806).
Richards shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Richards
Kesler
Home
51.1% (2,671)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
49.5% (2,512)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Richards
Kesler
P1
49.6%
56.5%
P2
50.3%
55.9%
P3
51.0%
56.1%
OT
50.6%
46.0%
Final 5 min
49.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richards
46.0%▼
49.5%
50.3%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2016 | 3 | 11:53 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 10, 2016 | 2 | 15:24 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Jan 30, 2015 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 3 | 02:36 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 1 | 13:30 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 28, 2014 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 3 | 12:58 | Defensive | Brad Richards |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 3 | 03:13 | Defensive | Brad Richards |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 2 | 14:19 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 11:28 | Defensive | Brad Richards |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 08:17 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Nov 30, 2013 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 3 | 10:02 | Neutral | Brad Richards |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 3 | 09:57 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Oct 18, 2011 | 2 | 09:14 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 3 | 00:52 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 1 | 05:15 | Offensive | Brad Richards |
| Feb 1, 2011 | 1 | 01:37 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 24, 2011 | 2 | 19:56 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |