Scouting Report
Brad Richardson holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Richardson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Richardson wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nelson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richardson 55.8% vs Nelson 49.4% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.8%
Defensive zone
Richardson 75.3%
Neutral zone
Richardson 54.5%
Result
Brad Richardson favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Richardson
Nelson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Richardson
Nelson
Last 7: Richardson 4-3 Nelson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Richardson
Nelson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
0
1
Richardson
Nelson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Richardson
3
1
Richardson
Nelson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richardson
Nelson
Edge
Even Strength
59.7% (221)
49.9% (840)
+9.8%
Power Play
100.0% (2)
52.8% (89)
+47.2%
Penalty Kill
31.3% (16)
28.6% (35)
+2.7%
On power play, Richardson has a +47.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nelson shoots left. Richardson is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (151).
Richardson shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Home / Away
Richardson
Nelson
Home
60.2% (88)
49.8% (458)
Away
57.0% (151)
49.0% (506)
By Period
Richardson
Nelson
P1
63.8%
50.1%
P2
59.1%
45.4%
P3
50.7%
52.7%
Final 5 min
65.3%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richardson
58.0%▬
58.0%
58.2%
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 17:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 13:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 18:45 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 06:43 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 13:46 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 13:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 1 | 13:18 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |