Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Richardson wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Richardson 53.4% vs Sturm 56.1% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 51.7%
Defensive zone
Richardson 50.4%
Neutral zone
Richardson 51.4%
Result
Brad Richardson favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Richardson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Richardson
Sturm
Last 6: Richardson 3-3 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Richardson
2
0
Richardson
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Richardson
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Richardson
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Richardson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (5,037)
57.1% (2,719)
-2.2%
Power Play
56.8% (125)
61.3% (62)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
45.9% (1,001)
51.0% (498)
-5.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Richardson is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,818).
Richardson shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Richardson
Sturm
Home
53.6% (3,164)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
53.3% (3,003)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Richardson
Sturm
P1
52.3%
56.5%
P2
54.2%
54.9%
P3
53.5%
57.4%
OT
61.1%
60.6%
Final 5 min
55.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Richardson
58.0%▬
58.0%
53.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 01:23 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 05:20 | Neutral | Brad Richardson |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 01:33 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brad Richardson |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 3 | 13:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 26, 2022 | 1 | 02:01 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |