Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 15 meetings). Tkachuk wins 39.6% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 48.1% vs Spezza 55.7% (-9.5%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 14-5 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 93.8%
Defensive zone
Tkachuk 63.8%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 75.0%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Tkachuk
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
14
(19 meetings)
5
14
Tkachuk
Spezza
Last 10: Tkachuk 2-8 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
4
0
Tkachuk
Spezza
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
14
Tkachuk
Spezza
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (99)
57.9% (292)
-9.4%
Power Play
46.7% (150)
62.3% (53)
-15.6%
On power play, Spezza has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Tkachuk is 39.6% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Tkachuk shoots left. Spezza is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (347).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Spezza
Home
50.7% (136)
58.4% (238)
Away
43.4% (113)
55.5% (245)
By Period
Tkachuk
Spezza
P1
45.9%
59.2%
P2
54.4%
54.8%
P3
42.2%
57.4%
Final 5 min
41.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
47.4%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 16:28 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 1 | 18:00 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 05:21 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 3 | 15:26 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 3 | 15:04 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 12:10 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |