Scouting Report
Jason Spezza holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Spezza on defensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 15 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Spezza shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Spezza 54.7% (-4.6%)
H2H factor
Spezza leads 14-5 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 96.7%
Defensive zone
Tkachuk 74.7%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 75.0%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 79.3%
79.3%
20.7%
Tkachuk
Spezza
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
14
(19 meetings)
5
14
Tkachuk
Spezza
Last 10: Tkachuk 2-8 Spezza
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
4
0
Tkachuk
Spezza
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Spezza
1
14
Tkachuk
Spezza
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Spezza
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
54.4% (7,990)
-5.4%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
56.8% (1,726)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
52.7% (643)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Spezza has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Spezza shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Spezza is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,310).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Spezza
Home
50.7% (1,428)
56.8% (5,066)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
52.7% (5,332)
By Period
Tkachuk
Spezza
P1
49.4%
55.7%
P2
51.3%
54.4%
P3
49.3%
54.1%
OT
57.1%
51.5%
Final 5 min
46.9%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Spezza
46.0%▼
48.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 16:28 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 01:24 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 11:59 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 1 | 18:00 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Mar 14, 2021 | 1 | 06:41 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 2 | 05:21 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 2 | 03:59 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 3 | 15:26 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 3 | 15:04 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 17:48 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 1 | 12:10 | Defensive | Jason Spezza |