Scouting Report
Nate Thompson holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 47.1% vs Thompson 54.5% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 82.2%
Defensive zone
Thompson 94.6%
Neutral zone
Thompson 60.3%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Tkachuk
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Tkachuk
Thompson
Last 9: Tkachuk 5-4 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
5
0
Tkachuk
Thompson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
3
Tkachuk
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Tkachuk
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (226)
55.8% (654)
-8.9%
Power Play
42.0% (81)
50.0% (10)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
80.0% (5)
51.2% (123)
+28.8%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +28.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots left. Tkachuk is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (177).
Tkachuk shoots left. Thompson is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Thompson
Home
47.6% (168)
57.0% (421)
Away
44.4% (144)
52.7% (366)
By Period
Tkachuk
Thompson
P1
49.1%
57.9%
P2
42.9%
52.3%
P3
46.5%
55.2%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
46.2%
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2020 | 3 | 05:35 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 2 | 19:54 | Neutral | Nate Thompson |
| Feb 22, 2020 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 11, 2020 | 2 | 17:34 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 3 | 04:08 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 1 | 08:39 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 20, 2019 | 3 | 06:30 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |