Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Tkachuk on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Lafferty 47.6% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 96.4%
Defensive zone
Tkachuk 52.2%
Neutral zone
Tkachuk 65.4%
Result
Brady Tkachuk favored at 74.9%
74.9%
25.1%
Tkachuk
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Tkachuk
Lafferty
Last 7: Tkachuk 6-1 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
3
0
Tkachuk
Lafferty
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tkachuk
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
2
0
Tkachuk
Lafferty
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
48.0% (1,413)
+1.0%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
45.7% (46)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
43.5% (184)
+1.5%
On power play, Tkachuk has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Lafferty is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,248).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Lafferty
Home
50.7% (1,428)
47.3% (833)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
47.5% (810)
By Period
Tkachuk
Lafferty
P1
49.4%
49.4%
P2
51.3%
43.1%
P3
49.3%
49.8%
OT
57.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
46.9%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 07:03 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 19:08 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:56 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 10:49 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Feb 17, 2023 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |