Scouting Report
Brandon Pirri holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pirri wins 46.6% vs right-shot opponents — Stepan shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pirri 48.7% vs Stepan 46.6% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pirri 68.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 64.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 50.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Pirri
Stepan
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Pirri
Stepan
Last 8: Pirri 4-4 Stepan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pirri
2
0
Pirri
Stepan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Pirri
Stepan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
2
Pirri
Stepan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pirri
Stepan
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (983)
46.5% (10,204)
+1.2%
Power Play
55.1% (147)
48.8% (1,593)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
44.2% (1,368)
-4.2%
On power play, Pirri has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stepan shoots right. Pirri is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Pirri shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Home / Away
Pirri
Stepan
Home
51.3% (599)
47.6% (6,608)
Away
45.7% (536)
45.5% (6,573)
By Period
Pirri
Stepan
P1
49.4%
47.5%
P2
46.4%
45.6%
P3
49.9%
46.8%
OT
77.8%
40.7%
Final 5 min
50.6%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pirri
50.0%▼
55.0%
48.6%
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2019 | 3 | 18:18 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 12, 2019 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Brandon Pirri |
| Nov 21, 2015 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Brandon Pirri |
| Mar 15, 2015 | 2 | 18:16 | Defensive | Brandon Pirri |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 2 | 10:18 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 2 | 07:49 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 2 | 07:32 | Neutral | Brandon Pirri |
| Feb 2, 2015 | 1 | 15:32 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |