Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sutter on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sutter 50.5% vs Pavelski 57.8% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 89.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 58.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 74.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 77.8%
22.2%
77.8%
Sutter
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sutter
Pavelski
Last 8: Sutter 5-3 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sutter
2
1
Sutter
Pavelski
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Sutter
Pavelski
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sutter
3
1
Sutter
Pavelski
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sutter
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (1,005)
57.8% (569)
-6.2%
Power Play
36.5% (52)
60.2% (161)
-23.7%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (211)
59.5% (121)
-10.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Sutter is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Sutter shoots right. Pavelski is 66.1% vs right-shot opponents (183).
Home / Away
Sutter
Pavelski
Home
49.3% (663)
61.0% (403)
Away
51.7% (632)
56.6% (461)
By Period
Sutter
Pavelski
P1
48.0%
62.9%
P2
50.4%
56.6%
P3
53.4%
57.1%
OT
38.1%
57.9%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sutter
62.0%▲
57.0%
50.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2012 | 3 | 19:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 2 | 16:49 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 2 | 12:45 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 2 | 09:29 | Offensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 2 | 09:21 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Feb 17, 2012 | 1 | 16:36 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |