Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sutter 50.2% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 57.9%
Defensive zone
Sutter 80.9%
Neutral zone
Sutter 63.1%
Result
Brandon Sutter favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Sutter
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
18
(30 meetings)
12
18
Sutter
Pavelski
Last 10: Sutter 4-6 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
6
Sutter
Pavelski
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Sutter
Pavelski
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
6
9
Sutter
Pavelski
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sutter
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (7,610)
53.6% (8,791)
-2.7%
Power Play
52.8% (627)
58.2% (2,122)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (1,797)
50.9% (1,138)
-4.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Sutter is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (3,385).
Sutter shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Sutter
Pavelski
Home
50.6% (5,050)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
49.8% (5,033)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Sutter
Pavelski
P1
48.7%
53.5%
P2
50.3%
55.2%
P3
51.5%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
49.4%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sutter
62.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2018 | 2 | 11:48 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 1 | 14:47 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 1 | 10:48 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 17, 2018 | 1 | 06:16 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 1 | 16:25 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 4, 2017 | 1 | 16:47 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 1 | 16:07 | Offensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 2, 2017 | 1 | 10:51 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 3 | 16:37 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 3 | 16:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 3 | 19:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 2 | 11:06 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 2 | 00:08 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 1 | 01:08 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 29, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 10:51 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 1 | 17:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 5, 2013 | 3 | 09:53 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |