Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Sutter wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sutter 47.9% vs O'Reilly 51.4% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.1%
Defensive zone
Sutter 80.7%
Neutral zone
Sutter 56.4%
Result
Brandon Sutter favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Sutter
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Sutter
O'Reilly
Last 10: Sutter 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Sutter
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sutter
2
1
Sutter
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Sutter
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sutter
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (863)
51.5% (194)
-1.9%
Power Play
50.0% (72)
52.3% (107)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (215)
51.4% (70)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Sutter is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Sutter shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Home / Away
Sutter
O'Reilly
Home
48.5% (542)
50.3% (185)
Away
47.0% (608)
53.2% (186)
By Period
Sutter
O'Reilly
P1
49.2%
51.0%
P2
49.4%
48.9%
P3
44.6%
53.3%
OT
52.9%
68.8%
Final 5 min
45.2%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sutter
62.0%▲
57.0%
47.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2014 | OT | 00:13 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2014 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 3 | 06:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 1 | 13:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 1 | 13:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 1 | 13:21 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Apr 6, 2014 | 1 | 06:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 2 | 11:07 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Oct 21, 2013 | 1 | 17:47 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |