Scouting Report
Brandon Sutter holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Connolly on offensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sutter 50.2% vs Connolly 47.3% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Connolly leads 14-11 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Connolly 84.1%
Defensive zone
Sutter 59.1%
Neutral zone
Connolly 61.5%
Result
Tim Connolly favored at 66.5%
33.5%
66.5%
Sutter
Connolly
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
14
(25 meetings)
11
14
Sutter
Connolly
Last 10: Sutter 3-7 Connolly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Connolly
2
9
Sutter
Connolly
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sutter
5
1
Sutter
Connolly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Sutter
Connolly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sutter
Connolly
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (7,610)
47.4% (1,307)
+3.5%
Power Play
52.8% (627)
50.2% (251)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (1,797)
41.9% (186)
+4.5%
On penalty kill, Sutter has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Connolly shoots right. Sutter is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (3,385).
Sutter shoots right. Connolly is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (576).
Home / Away
Sutter
Connolly
Home
50.6% (5,050)
48.5% (870)
Away
49.8% (5,033)
45.9% (885)
By Period
Sutter
Connolly
P1
48.7%
47.4%
P2
50.3%
47.7%
P3
51.5%
47.0%
OT
50.0%
37.8%
Final 5 min
49.4%
42.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sutter
62.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Connolly
50.0%▬
51.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2011 | 3 | 19:39 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 29, 2011 | 3 | 16:55 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Dec 29, 2011 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 13, 2011 | OT | 00:25 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Dec 13, 2011 | 3 | 01:07 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Nov 20, 2011 | 2 | 14:10 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Apr 3, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Apr 3, 2011 | 2 | 05:50 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Apr 3, 2011 | 2 | 01:06 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Apr 3, 2011 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 3 | 15:53 | Offensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 15, 2011 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 3 | 09:07 | Neutral | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 2 | 06:00 | Neutral | Tim Connolly |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 1 | 16:00 | Defensive | Brandon Sutter |
| Mar 3, 2011 | 1 | 05:59 | Offensive | Tim Connolly |
| Jan 13, 2011 | 3 | 15:39 | Defensive | Tim Connolly |