Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Schenn wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 46.8% vs Gaustad 56.7% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schenn 93.1%
Defensive zone
Schenn 69.8%
Neutral zone
Schenn 76.6%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 75.3%
75.3%
24.7%
Schenn
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Schenn
Gaustad
Last 8: Schenn 1-7 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Schenn
Gaustad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
3
Schenn
Gaustad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
3
Schenn
Gaustad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (398)
57.8% (854)
-12.1%
Power Play
45.2% (31)
56.0% (25)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (4)
55.1% (263)
+19.9%
On penalty kill, Schenn has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Schenn is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (295).
Schenn shoots left. Gaustad is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (734).
Home / Away
Schenn
Gaustad
Home
50.9% (226)
61.3% (633)
Away
41.0% (210)
52.4% (517)
By Period
Schenn
Gaustad
P1
47.0%
57.9%
P2
45.4%
55.3%
P3
45.0%
58.3%
OT
75.0%
64.3%
Final 5 min
45.6%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
46.1%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 19:05 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 12:53 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 10:56 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 08:20 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 3 | 08:05 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 2 | 00:54 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 16, 2012 | 1 | 01:11 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |