Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carpenter on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Schenn wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schenn 49.2% vs Carpenter 51.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schenn 76.1%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 57.2%
Neutral zone
Schenn 51.7%
Result
Brayden Schenn favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Schenn
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Schenn
Carpenter
Last 8: Schenn 3-5 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
2
Schenn
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
2
Schenn
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Schenn
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schenn
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (542)
53.2% (299)
-4.5%
Power Play
70.6% (17)
33.3% (3)
+37.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (20)
46.5% (86)
-6.5%
On power play, Schenn has a +37.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Schenn is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Schenn shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Schenn
Carpenter
Home
49.0% (286)
54.6% (207)
Away
49.1% (293)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Schenn
Carpenter
P1
47.7%
52.3%
P2
48.7%
51.5%
P3
51.4%
50.8%
Final 5 min
46.4%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schenn
48.0%▼
52.5%
49.1%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 05:37 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 07:46 | Neutral | Brayden Schenn |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 07:32 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 3 | 07:44 | Offensive | Brayden Schenn |
| Feb 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 26, 2021 | 1 | 07:24 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |