Scouting Report
Brendan Gaunce holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Crosby on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaunce wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaunce 54.4% vs Crosby 55.5% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Crosby 75.1%
Defensive zone
Gaunce 82.9%
Neutral zone
Gaunce 54.8%
Result
Brendan Gaunce favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Gaunce
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Gaunce
Crosby
Last 9: Gaunce 4-5 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
4
Gaunce
Crosby
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaunce
4
0
Gaunce
Crosby
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
0
1
Gaunce
Crosby
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaunce
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
58.1% (155)
53.7% (984)
+4.4%
Power Play
0.0% (1)
64.7% (241)
-64.7%
Penalty Kill
52.0% (25)
64.3% (14)
-12.3%
On power play, Crosby has a +64.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. Gaunce is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (105).
Gaunce shoots left. Crosby is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (879).
Home / Away
Gaunce
Crosby
Home
54.8% (93)
56.9% (649)
Away
59.1% (88)
54.9% (590)
By Period
Gaunce
Crosby
P1
62.3%
55.8%
P2
48.1%
53.2%
P3
59.5%
58.7%
Final 5 min
51.2%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaunce
50.0%▼
56.5%
56.9%
Crosby
64.0%▲
54.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 12:52 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 12:28 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 02:54 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:59 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 11:10 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 02:10 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 3 | 02:06 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |
| Jan 4, 2026 | 1 | 09:20 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 11:07 | Defensive | Brendan Gaunce |